Category Archives: Current affairs

War and national security in the 21st century.

British Troops Readied for Show of Force

The Times has reported that next month the UK will to deploy 20,000 military personnel across eastern Europe as part of the NATO exercise Steadfast Defender. They will be accompanied by one of the Royal Navy’s two aircraft carriers, eight other warships and F35 fighter jets.

The article quotes Grant Shapps, the UK Defence Secretary, as warning that the world had moved to a ‘prewar’ phase as global conflicts escalated. He urged NATO allies to increase their defence spending to meet the alliance’s target of 2 per cent of gross domestic product in what h says is ‘far more dangerous world.’

Shapps argues that the war in the Ukraine and conflicts in the Middle East have the foundations of world order have been shaken ‘to their core.’ He states that the ‘peace dividend’ enjoyed by the west since the end of the Cold War is now over and ‘the foundations of the world order are being shaken to their core.’

Britain is also part of the Joint Expeditionary Force along with the three Baltic countries [Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania], the five Nordic ones [Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden] and the Netherlands. According to a Times column by Edward Lucas, these 10 countries have a combined GDP and defence budget greater than Russia.

However, they lack plans, stocks of munitions and a clear political decision making process. Also, Poland, the strongest military power in the region is absent.

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Aid to Ukraine: Storm Shadow Missiles

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Arms for Ukraine

The UK has recently announced that it will supply Ukraine with large quantities of munitions, including 600 Brimstone anti tank missiles and 14 Challenger Main Battle Tanks. The British Army had intended to upgrade 148 of its 227 Challenger 2 tanks to Challenger 3 standard. However, Ben Wallace, the Secretary of State for Defence was quoted in The Times on 17 January 2023 as saying that he would be ‘reviewing the number of Challenger 3 conversions to consider whether the lessons of Ukraine suggest that we need a larger tank fleet.’

The same newspaper also reported that the UK is suppling Ukraine with 30 AS-90 self propelled guns, hundreds more armoured vehicles including Bulldogs and 100,000 artillery shells, Wallace admits that this shipment will ‘not change the course of history’ but hope that it will encourage Germany to permit other NATO countries to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine.

Germany has been reluctant to supply tanks to Ukraine. A dozen other NATO countries own about 2,000 Leopards between them. Several, including Finland and Poland are willing to send a total of 90 of their German Leopard tanks to Ukraine but this requires the permission of Germany as the original supplier. This has not been forthcoming until now, but the BBC is now reporting that Germany will not block exports of Leopards to Ukraine.

The USA has not supplied Ukraine with MI Abrams tanks, which it describes as ‘unsuitable’ [The Times 21 January 2023, p. 6] for Ukrainian conditions but it has sent it $23bn worth of missiles, howitzers, ammunition, drones, armoured vehicles, mines, body armour, coastal boats and communications equipment. See this link to The Hill for the full list.

According to NBC News, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Mark Milley think that it will take too long to train Ukrainian crews to operate Abrams, which are also difficult to maintain.

Graphics on the website of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy show that, as of 20 November 2022, the six biggest donors in absolute terms were the USA, UK, EU, Germany. Canada and Poland but that the six biggest relative to GDP were neighbours of Ukraine: Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Czech Republic and Slovakia,

EDIT German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced on 25 January 2021 that Germany would allow other countries to send Leopards to Ukraine and would send 14 of its Leopards to Ukraine.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-64396659

EDIT 2 Later on 25 January, the USA announced that it would give 31 M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-64404928

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The Russo-Ukraine war: Implications for UK Defence

Excellent analysis of the implications of the Russo-Ukraine War for British defence policy by Geraint Hughes of the Defence Studies Department, King’s College London.

Defence-In-Depth

Geraint Hughes, Defence Studies Department, King’s College London

Over a month has passed since Vladimir Putin launched his ‘special military operation’ to subjugate Ukraine. Russia’s blatant and unprovoked invasion of its neighbour has caused amajor international crisis, with Britain and other NATO powers being presented with the hard task of helping the Ukrainians to defend their homeland while simultaneously avoiding escalation with its nuclear-armed aggressor. The aim of this post is to summarise the key implications of this war for Britain’s defence policy, and also for its armed forces in particular.

The 2021Integrated Reviewand the ensuingDefence White Paperemphasised the ‘sub-threshold’ threat that Russia and other potential adversaries posed to the UK and its allies, arguing that Britain’s enemies would utilise tools of statecraft short of overt warfare (propaganda, military sabre-rattling, covert action etc) to achieve their objectives. This thinking reflected current conceptions of‘political…

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New defence chief warns of Russian threat at sea | The Times

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/admiral-sir-tony-radakin-warns-of-russian-threat-at-sea-kx7vf5sxv?shareToken=ae07419410e6acf0c7d0c7f4d79253bc

Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, Chief of the British Defence Staff has told  The Times that Russia is a major threat to the UK and its allies at sea. Russian submarines are very active and they could cut undersea cables in a war, which would severely damage the economies of the affected countries by severing their overseas communication links.

Radakin has, however, had a recent telephone call with General Valery Gerasimov, his Russian counterpart., the first such call since 2019.

In 1914, Britain cut Germany’s trans Atlantic cables, but cable communications were not then as vital to commerce as they now are.

See this previous post for more details

Radakin also warns of the threat from Russia’s 3,850 mph hypersonic missiles. It test fired 10 from a frigate and two from a submarine last month. China has also tested such missiles and North Korea claims to have done so.

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AUKUS

As has been well publicised, Australia, the UK and the USA have signed an agreement that will make Australia the seventh country in the world to possess nuclear powered submarines. The others are the China, France, India, Russia, the UK and the USA. Unsurprisingly, the USA has the largest fleet.

Australia will build eight hunter killer submarines [SSNs] based on either the British Astute class or the US Virginia class. These will be nuclear powered but armed with conventional torpedoes and missiles, not the intercontinental ballistic missiles carried by SSBN submarines.

Eight SSNs is a substantial force. The UK has 11 nuclear powered submarines but four are SSBNs, meaning that it has only seven comparable to the Australian ones. Australia will be the only country to operates SSNs without having any SSBNs. India has only SSBNs at sea or under construction and the other five operators all have a mix of SSNs and SSBNs.

As well as the Australian boats, British SSNs may be based in Australia as part of an alliances that is clearly aimed at containing China.

The three countries involved are all part of the Five Eyes intelligence sharing network, along with Canada and New Zealand. The absence of New Zealand is unsurprising since it is a nuclear free country. For an excellent analysis of the pact in general and its impact on Canada in particular, see this post from Canadian blogger Mark Collins’s blog. The link is to part 2 but it links back to part 1.

The most controversial part of the agreement is the exclusion of France, a NATO ally that possesses nuclear submarines, has substantial interests in the Pacific and had a contract to supply Australia with 12 conventionally powered submarines, which the Australians have now torn up. France has recalled its ambassadors to Canberra and Washington, but not London, which is probably intended to suggest that the British are the junior partners in the pact.

A likely reason for the French exclusion is that President Macron stated in February 2021 that the ‘EU shouldn’t gang up on China with US.’ See this report from the Politico website.

British defence commentator Julian Lindley-French argues in his Speaking Truth Unto Power blog LINK that the French are responsible for problems with the Australian submarines contract and that their intelligence services should have got wind of the pact

Another British defence blog, The Thin Pinstriped Line, written by a former UK Ministry of Defence civil servant and Reserve officer points out that the France and the UK compete across the globe for defence contracts, which involve transfers of technology and materiel as does AUKUS. There does not appear to be anything in the treaty to commit the partners to go to war together or to joint military operations.

The most likely reason why the French were not asked to join was probably an expectation that they would have declined to do so.

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China’s Magic Weapon

The BBC recently broadcast a documentary made by Jane Corbin about a Chinese Communist Party [CCP] organisation that is officially called The United Front Work Department [UFWD] but is often referred to as China’s Magic Weapon.

Chairman Mao said that the success of the CCP was thanks to the magic weapon of the united front of the people, the armed struggle and the party. Now, President Xi is using the UFWD to spread Chinese influence round the world. It expects Chinese expatriates to work on it behalf.

The main objectives are to spread Chinese power and influence and to obtain technology, especially military technology. The documentary concentrated on Australia, the USA and the UK.

Attempts by the UFWD to subvert the democratic process in Australia were described by Clive Hamilton, Professor of Public Ethics at Charles Sturt University and Senator James Paterson, a member of the Australian Parliamentary Committee on Intelligence and Security.

A Chinese businessman whose visa was later revoked on national security grounds made a substantial donation to the Australian Labor Party. At Queensland University, a peaceful protest against the Chinese government by 10-15 students was broken up by 2-300 Chinese students. The university took action against only the leader pf the peaceful protest. The local Chinese Consul General is an Honorary Professor at the University.

A law has now been passed with cross party support in order to combat Chinese subversion in Australia.

China attempts to influence students in many countries via its global network of Confucius Institiutes

In the USA, a fire at the Chinese Consulate in Houston soon after the US government had ordered it to close appeared to be caused by paper and plastic being burnt. John Demers, formerly Assistant Attorney-General for National Security described the consulate as being a ‘den of spies.’ He stated that China is conducting industrial espionage on a major scale. Its aim is to steal a company’s research and then its market.

The point about Chinese attempts to steal intellectual property from Western companies was also made by Greg Levesque of Strider, a company specialising in helping companies to prevent theft of their intellectual property by nation-states.

China is also alleged to be recruiting Chinese academics. Charles Lieber, Professor of Chemistry at Harvard, has been arrested and accused of working for China. Many other academics have, however, come to his defence. His case has not yet gone to trial, but he has requested that it be expedited as he has incurable cancer.

According to Tom Tugendhat, Chairman of the British Parliamentary Foreign Affairs Committee and Dr Radomir Tylecote of the Civitas Defence and Security for Democracy Unit, most of the top two dozen British universities have some sort of research or sponsorship relationship with organisations linked to the Chinese military. Students from China’s university of defence technology are at Oxford University.

The United Kingdom tried to build closer links with China when Xi visited in 2015. As a result, China now has significant involvement in British infrastructure, including nuclear power stations, airports and water utility companies.

A fascinating but worrying programme.

See the link below for a 2017 Financial Times articles on the UFWD. This newspaper’s website is mostly pay but this article should be freely available.

https://www.ft.com/content/fb2b3934-b004-11e7-beba-5521c713abf4?shareType=nongift

The documentary can be watched by UK viewers from the BBC iPlayer at the link below:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000z2yt/chinas-magic-weapon

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Russians Harrass British Destroyer in the Black Sea

There has been a confrontation between the British destroyer HMS Defender and Russian forces in the Black Sea. According to the Russians, they fired warning shots and a Sukhoi Su-24 aircraft dropped four l8v3 bombs nearby. The British claim that the Russians had told them that they would be conducting live firing exercises in the Black Sea and that Defender was three miles from the firing and bombing,

Defender was heading from Odessa in southern Ukraine to Georgia by what the UK considers to be an international transit route. Russia regards it as being part of its territorial waters since its annexation of Crimea in 2014, which many countries, including the members of the EU and NATO consider to be illegal.

Joanathan Beale, a BBC correspodent, was on board Defender. He says that two Russian coastguard ships came within 100 yards of Defender and that she detected over 20 Russian military aircraft. He heard firing but thought that it was three miles away. According to The Times, the coastguard ships are operated by the FSB, Russia’s domestic intelligence service.

Defender had been detached from the HMS Queen Elizabeth carrier strike group, which is currently in the Mediterranean on her way to the Indian Ocean and then theSouth China Sea. She was accompanied by the Dutch frigate HNLMS Evertsen and the guided missile destroyer USS Laboon for part of her freedom of navigation operation in the Black Sea but was on her own when the Russians intervened. The Economist says that there was an American intelligence gathering aircraft above Defender during the confrontation,

In another Western attempt to assert the right to freedom of the seas the guided missile destroyer USS Curtis Wilbur this week sailed through the Taiwan Straits, claimed by China.

BBC News – Russian jets and ships target British warship

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-57583363

Russian and British forces square off in the Black Sea from The Economist

https://www.economist.com/europe/2021/06/24/russian-and-british-forces-square-off-in-the-black-sea

You won’t stop our ships, defiant Britain tells Putin | The Times

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/you-wont-stop-our-ships-defiant-britain-tells-putin-hr3jcn7c5?shareToken=1d6a3550df514dd6eb4051f32b9e4578

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NATO Allies Agree to Defend Each Other if There’s a War in Space

The London Times has reported that NATO members have agreed to defend each other if a war spreads to space. China and Russia are developing anti-satellite weapons that could cripple communications, surveillance or navigation technology.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/325754f8-cd46-11eb-979e-6eddfcb6b6ef?shareToken=590ed777df124ad34c87aa10dd7b88cb

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Space gets the recognition it deserves in the Integrated Review

Reblog of a comment by King’s College London’s Defence Studies Department on the first significant discussion of space in a British government policy review.

Defence-In-Depth

Dr Mark Hilborne and Dr Mark Presley, Defence Studies Department

The government’s Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy, along with its accompanying Defence Command Paper, has made the first significant inclusion of space in such a UK policy document.[1] This is a welcome development, indicating the growing importance of space in reaching a number of key policy objectives, such as prosperity, diplomacy and security, and putting it alongside land, air, maritime and cyber as a key domain of operations.

The government’s vision for space is given some scope in the section entitled “An Integrated space policy: making the UK a meaningful player in space”. “Integrated” here refers both to the cross-governmental approach, incorporating the civil, commercial and military sectors, but also with regards to the UK’s allies and partners. The recognition that a cross-government strategy is required is an important step, and it will be critical…

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